A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
